Following on from my earlier post about whether mobile data usage is flattening off, I've done a quick bit of forensic analysis and modelling about Telefonica O2 UK's mobile data traffic statistics:
From Q1 2011 report: "Data traffic from mobile broadband accesses however continued to grow with total volume increasing 45% year-on-year. Despite the removal of further heavy users to ensure the best network experience to all customers, both data usage per customer and mobile broadband penetration continued growing"
From Q2 2011 report: "Data traffic from mobile broadband accesses also continued to grow with total volume increasing 31% year-on-year in the first half."
From Q3 2011 report: "Data traffic also continued to grow with total volume increasing 22% year-on-year in the first nine months. Growth in the third quarter was lower at 7.9% year-on-year following the removal of heavy data users, with all consumer data contract base sequentially growing usage."
The model is slightly complex because we don't know exact QoQ growths for 2010, and we have to reverse them out of the 6/9 month YoY stats and make estimates.
But whichever way I set the spreadsheet up, it looks like O2 UK has recorded falling absolute levels of traffic in Q3 of 2011, and perhaps Q2 as well.
EDIT - one of the commenters has found a set of numbers that doesn't have a fall, but has 3 quarters essentially static at +/- 1% . Might be a one-off readjustment, but it's surprisingly "elegant" if that narrow possibility holds true
We know that Q1 2011 = 45% more than Q1 2010.
So let's put Q1 2010 = 100 and Q1 2011 = 145 . Interpolating, we could have Q1/2/3/4 of 2010 as perhaps 100/115/125/135 or maybe 100/120/130/140 or similar. But then we can determine Q2 and Q3 2011 from the other growth rates reported.
So for example, we get:
or
Unless you put really silly numbers into the model (eg Q2 2010 = 250, up 2.5x QoQ) I can't see how you get anything but an absolute decline in recent months.
Now this is just one operator in one country. And it's possible that O2 (the original iPhone exclusive operator in the UK) has seen a lot of churn to Vodafone, EE and 3UK (which still has full flatrate dataplans and has been reporting strong data growth). And O2 has repeatedly stated that it has "removed heavy data users" and has apparently also blocked adult content by default, as well as encouraging WiFi. So this could be an isolated example, or a one-time blip before growth resumes.
O2 Germany's stats reported in the same financial statements do not demonstrate an absolute fall, but also suggest a slowing rate of growth. I'm estimating that it's down to maybe 8-10% QoQ growth, based on statements such as "Mobile data traffic also increased significantly (+51% year-on-year in the first nine months; +47% in the third quarter)"
I'm going to be looking very closely for other data points, and more importantly trends over time in growth rates - any other contributions or comments most welcome.
ARE YOU A MOBILE OPERATOR OR VENDOR WONDERING WHAT IT MEANS IF YOUR MOBILE DATA USAGE FORECASTS ARE WRONG? WHAT IF THE "DATA TSUNAMI" IS OVER? BOOK A WORKSHOP OR ADVISORY PROJECT WITH DISRUPTIVE ANALYSIS - email information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com
From Q1 2011 report: "Data traffic from mobile broadband accesses however continued to grow with total volume increasing 45% year-on-year. Despite the removal of further heavy users to ensure the best network experience to all customers, both data usage per customer and mobile broadband penetration continued growing"
From Q2 2011 report: "Data traffic from mobile broadband accesses also continued to grow with total volume increasing 31% year-on-year in the first half."
From Q3 2011 report: "Data traffic also continued to grow with total volume increasing 22% year-on-year in the first nine months. Growth in the third quarter was lower at 7.9% year-on-year following the removal of heavy data users, with all consumer data contract base sequentially growing usage."
The model is slightly complex because we don't know exact QoQ growths for 2010, and we have to reverse them out of the 6/9 month YoY stats and make estimates.
But whichever way I set the spreadsheet up, it looks like O2 UK has recorded falling absolute levels of traffic in Q3 of 2011, and perhaps Q2 as well.
EDIT - one of the commenters has found a set of numbers that doesn't have a fall, but has 3 quarters essentially static at +/- 1% . Might be a one-off readjustment, but it's surprisingly "elegant" if that narrow possibility holds true
We know that Q1 2011 = 45% more than Q1 2010.
So let's put Q1 2010 = 100 and Q1 2011 = 145 . Interpolating, we could have Q1/2/3/4 of 2010 as perhaps 100/115/125/135 or maybe 100/120/130/140 or similar. But then we can determine Q2 and Q3 2011 from the other growth rates reported.
So for example, we get:
| Q1 2010 | 100 |
| Q2 2010 | 115 |
| Q3 2010 | 125 |
| Q4 2010 | 135 |
| Q1 2011 | 145 |
| Q2 2011 | 137 |
| Q3 2011 | 135 |
or
| Q1 2010 | 100 |
| Q2 2010 | 120 |
| Q3 2010 | 130 |
| Q4 2010 | 140 |
| Q1 2011 | 145 |
| Q2 2011 | 143 |
| Q3 2011 | 140 |
Unless you put really silly numbers into the model (eg Q2 2010 = 250, up 2.5x QoQ) I can't see how you get anything but an absolute decline in recent months.
Now this is just one operator in one country. And it's possible that O2 (the original iPhone exclusive operator in the UK) has seen a lot of churn to Vodafone, EE and 3UK (which still has full flatrate dataplans and has been reporting strong data growth). And O2 has repeatedly stated that it has "removed heavy data users" and has apparently also blocked adult content by default, as well as encouraging WiFi. So this could be an isolated example, or a one-time blip before growth resumes.
O2 Germany's stats reported in the same financial statements do not demonstrate an absolute fall, but also suggest a slowing rate of growth. I'm estimating that it's down to maybe 8-10% QoQ growth, based on statements such as "Mobile data traffic also increased significantly (+51% year-on-year in the first nine months; +47% in the third quarter)"
I'm going to be looking very closely for other data points, and more importantly trends over time in growth rates - any other contributions or comments most welcome.
ARE YOU A MOBILE OPERATOR OR VENDOR WONDERING WHAT IT MEANS IF YOUR MOBILE DATA USAGE FORECASTS ARE WRONG? WHAT IF THE "DATA TSUNAMI" IS OVER? BOOK A WORKSHOP OR ADVISORY PROJECT WITH DISRUPTIVE ANALYSIS - email information AT disruptive-analysis DOT com
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