Notifications and "keep-alives" from mobile apps - the battery issue

I've written before about the issues of power management in smartphones using Web 2.0 and other applications. Web services and widgets that use Javascript to pull down content in the background, presence clients checking for buddies' status updates. Social networking apps looking for new data, and so on.

The problem is exacerbated with smartphones that allow full multi-tasking, as they may have multiple applications pinging the network. This isn't too bad with 2G GPRS/EDGE, because of the way the radio channels are set up. But with 3G, and especially HSPA, there's a problem, because the radio has two "active" states (lets say "full" and "standby"), with different levels of power consumption, as well as a third state which could be called "off".

(If you want the full technical explanation on DCH and FACH channels, Martin Sauter has a great overview here)

Keeping the radio in the either fully-active or standby-active state is a battery killer.

This doesn't just impact "over-the-top" third party apps either. At the moment, it applies equally to "through-the-middle" operator services like RCS too. In theory, the operator should be able to control this a bit better, as it knows the various timings for the states on its network, and should in theory be able to configure the application to work around this.

But this would then need the application to be aware of the network state, and/or vice versa. And it would be complicated where the user had multiple operator clients running on the device (say, both email and presence).

As per normal, the handset, network and application areas of the industry don't really talk to each other. As with other themes in the industry, there's still the brick wall when you suggest that applications should be "bearer aware".

One option is to have some sort of "notification broker" that bundles up all the "keep alive" messages and sends them together, at times that optimise for battery life on the device and/or impact of the sheer number of these short messages on the network.

The next question is who controls the notification broker. And whether it's in the OS, a higher-level client, or even the radio. I think this may turn out to be a future battleground for the industry.

One thing to ponder on: Apple has been working on a push notification engine, although it's been delayed. And it also doesn't like background applications running on the iPhone.

It wouldn't surprise me to see an operator-sponsored approach as well. Possibly it already exists in some of the more "controlled" OS/app stacks like DoCoMo's. But I suspect that this will be more about protecting the network, rather than the handset battery - one solution optimising simultaneously for both seems unlikely.

This has huge implications for application developers, Internet players, handset vendors and operators.

I suspect the optimum solution would be a full two-sided version run by the carriers, used for internal apps like their own presence, but also with a completely open and standardised API for 3rd-party developers and hosted MVNOs. It might even be a new source of revenue. The other option is one run by the OS vendors - but even then, it would be preferable to have some sort of coordination with both operators and each other.

One to watch in 2009, I think.

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Disposable mobile broadband - my experience

Someone close to me is going into hospital for an operation soon. They want to take their Mac with them for web and email access while recuperating. And it turns out that the institution concerned only has a paid WiFi hotspot service, at the typical extortionate rates, with the usual clunky credit-card sign up. It's also unclear whether the WiFi has ubiquitous coverage in the building.

Solution - as an alternative/substitute, I got them a 3G dongle as a gift. Obviously that's also a little hostage to coverage issues, but I'm finding central London not too bad unless I'm in a basement. Also, it's not necessary to have multi-MB speeds for HD video, or huge file download limits, in this case.

Given their expected stay in hospital, their existing 20MB ADSL + 802.11n WiFi coverage, and relatively infrequent normal out-of-home PC use (and iPhone ownership), there was no point in getting an 18 / 24 month ongoing contract. A packaged, boxed, prepaid dongle was ideal.

I saw that Vodafone announced a standalone prepaid dongle a week or so back, for £39 including an inclusive 1GB data allowance. You can buy more at £15 per GB through normal prepay channels. This seemed pretty good. Unfortunately, and despite what the first Voda store I visited told me, it doesn't currently support Apple Macs. Luckily, that one was out of stock anyway, and the second one on London's Oxford Street had some more clued-up staff who gave me accurate information.

Being two days before Xmas, with hordes of shoppers in London, I wasn't exactly getting personal service at some of the other stores. My patience ran thin in O2 and T-Mobile and Orange stores. But anyway, none seemed to have nice, convenient prepaid "in a box" dongles that didn't need contracts or other hard work to sign up, at least based on the display info and brochures. I was a bit surprised, as I'd though that T-Mo had a similar offer, but I couldn't find it.

So, my last port of call was 3 UK. They've been heavily advertising the dongle-as-Xmas-present offer all over London, so I was pretty confident they'd have what I needed. And yes, they have three pre-packaged options, based on Huawei E160 modem sticks (HSDPA 3.6 only, but that's good enough). They offer 1GB, 3GB and 12GB prepaid boxed bundles, with the data "credit" lasting 1/3/12 months respectively. Apple support was indicated on the outside of the box.

I was in store for about 10-15 minutes, was dealt with by two busy-but-pleasant staffers, who helpfully pointed out that the midrange 3GB bundle was, in fact, discounted to just £50 instead of the indicated £70. (Compared to £30 or £100 for the 1GB or 12GB offers). They also offered me the option of black or white dongles - obviously white to go with the MacBook.

Sold.

I paid £50 (ie €52 / $74) for the modem and 3GB / 3 months of access. At that rate, it's essentially disposable. Whether 3 is making any profit on it, if most of the 3GB gets used up, but the account doesn't get topped up afterwards, is another question entirely.

As a side-note - given that some London hotels still charge £10 or even £20 for a day's WiFi, anyone coming to London for a week or more would be insane not to use the same approach.

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My 2008 predictions - how did they turn out?

I know it's become a bit of a cliche among analysts and commentators to do an annual set of predictions, and a post-mortem on the previous years. But for once, I'm going to go with the consensus, and go ahead anyway.

So without further ado, I'm going to revisit my 2008 predictions, originally posted here

1) There is a notable shift towards non-operator unlocked 'vanilla' handsets

Yes and no. There's certainly been a healthy market of people buying SIM-only mobile contracts in Europe, either with new handsets or unlocked legacy ones. On the other hand, operator exclusivity and better integration/optimisation on devices like the iPhone, BlackBerry Storm and T-Mobile G1, and 3/INQ 1 have ensured continued use of carrier channels for smartphones. The picture varies a lot by country and region, though.


2) The European Commission cracks down on data roaming prices.

Yes. You can't say you weren't warned.


3) Mobile broadand continues its rapid growth - but 3G-embedded laptops lose out even further to USB-based 3G modems

Yes. Enough said.


4) At least one mobile operator will face an investigation over reported numbers

No. Unless I missed anything, I don't think there has been any major incident of slapped wrists. I suspect investors are becoming a bit more savvy about interpreting reported numbers like ARPU, data revenues and "subscribers" for themselves.


5) Android... hmmm, it's just another platform

Yes. "We'll be back here in 12 months saying that Google's Android might be a big deal in 2009". Quite.


6) Technologies for exploiting end-user context and state become the hot topic of the year.

Up to a point. Lots of talk and conferences on APIs and presence and context-awareness, so yes it's certainly been a "hot topic". Plenty of discussion about possible business models whereby telecom operators can monetise their internal knowledge about their subscribers' context. But not that much real revenue or really impressive service launches yet.


7) Operators realise that knee-jerk attempts to block VoIP are counterproductive.

Yes, by and large. Many mobile operators have recognised that VoIP simply isn't a big threat, given complexity of use, and the fact that competitive and regulatory pressures are exerting much greater impact on circuit voice pricing. It varies by operator and region, but the DPI vendors' rhetoric is now much more about throttling video and P2P than blocking Skype.


8) Femtocells have a year of ups and downs. Some niche success, but practicalities will mean it's H2'09 or 2010 before massmarket deployment.

Yes. We're getting there on standards, and we're seeing the first soft-launches, but there are still too many optimists with steep hockey-stick curves. My forecast for 2009 shipments is still below one million units.


9) OK, this might be wishful thinking, but I'm hoping to see more pragmatism & innovation around the concept of mobile multiplicity.

Yes! There's a fast-growing acceptance that people will have multiple devices, and multiple operators. Even Verizon is talking about a 400%+ target for penetration. We're seeing dual-SIM phones, options for multiple numbers or personalities on a single device and so forth. Bundled phone+dongle contracts, too. We've still got a long way to go to get shared data plans across multiple gadgets, but even that is being discussed regularly.


10) No, No, No, No, No

- Mobile search. Still pointless. Yes. I know it's contentious, but I still see no evidence that people "want to find, not search" on their handsets. Tell that to Google with all their searches from the iPhone....

- Mobile advertising will definitely grow - but it's not going to get beyond a few % of ARPU in the foreseeable future. Yes. Definitely growing, but it won't solve world hunger.

- Mobile centrex. Yes. Still stuck on case studies of 11-person media agencies in Stockholm. No sign of massmarket uptake among either large businesses or SMEs.

- UMA dual-mode services. OK, maybe we'll get to 2-3 million users in 2008. Yes. No recent hard numbers from Orange or T-Mobile US - but I'm sure they'd be trumpeting loudly if they'd grown significantly. If anything, we may still be below 2 million in terms of actual active users.

- Unfortunately, we'll still have mobile industry dinosaurs referring to handsets as 'terminals'. Yes. As I said, it's a good filter for who "gets" mobile in 2009. Do you reckon Steve Jobs ever refers to the iPhone as a terminal?

- Unlicenced-spectrum wide area wireless. Yes. Nothing happening yet, although the white spaces discussion in the US is interesting, but still a way from real-world usage.

- GSMA's IPX. Actually, this is an interesting one. There's been much less emphasis on the IMS-based QoS-driven parallel pseudo-Internet this year. Instead, they're doing useful interoperability stuff around things like number translation and carrier ENUM.


I'll be working on my 2009 predictions over the next couple of weeks.

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"Third-party pays" mobile data

One of the themes that I've started to explore recently is where someone other than the end user pays for mobile data access.

We're all familiar with this is when we use "free" WiFi in hotels or cafes - the venue owner picks up the bill, or a conference organiser.

I also saw a very good press release yesterday from mBlox, talking about the need for content providers to pick up the tab for connectivity - he makes an analogy with the sender of a letter or parcel paying for the stamp (sender pays), rather than than the receiver. mBlox's chairman, Andrew Bud, is a regular speaker at events like Telco 2.0 and articulates the need for this type of model very well.

However, my view is that the content-oriented "sender pays" model is just a narrow slice of a much broader opportunity for sponsored / third-party data. In general, mBlox and Andrew Bud tend to be very focused on "packaged" mobile transactions and content - downloadable videos, premium SMS, MMS, ringtones, songs, games and so on.

While these are undoubtedly important, in my view access to more open Internet mobile services will vastly eclipse that segment over time. Packaged content should grow, but I expect that ultimate demand is tiny compared with that for mobile access to FaceBook, Google search and maps, general web access, VoIP, corporate remote access and assorted web-based applications and widgets.

There needs to be a generic mechanism for mobile data - on phones, PCs and other devices - to be sold on a wholesale basis by mobile operators.

There needs to be a "free HSPA" capability to mirror "free WiFi" for notebook users at conferences (or across whole cities).

There needs to be a way to get free mobile web access paid for by advertisers.

There needs to be an mechanism that spans multiple operators and roaming, so for example a local tourist authority could sponsor free access by visitors to websites of local attractions and restaurants on their phones.

There needs to be a way for a new social network site to offer free mobile access, across all operators, to new users for their first month.

There needs to be a way that I can get a "global subscription" to the FT on my mobile device, without worrying about one-off charges.

There needs to be a way to be a way for the government to provide free mobile data for unemployed citizens without PCs, so they can check recruitment websites on their phones.

There needs to be a way to buy a mobile backup service, without the "sender" (ie the user) paying extra.

At the moment, the way to do this is typically a bit of a cludge - perhaps using a separate mobile APN, or trying to use content-based billing based on IP addresses or "application type". Or more usually, just giving people a flatrate bundle. But not everyone has flatrate data, and in any case it doesn't cover roaming, or multi-operator deals. As usual, the SIM gets in the way, which means at the moment it's easier to do all these things via WiFi instead of the cellular connection.

EDIT: Ideally, there also needs to be a way for the service/content provider to choose between different data wholesale products. So there should be different per-MB costs for fast vs slow access, extra-low latency connections for games or VoIP, options for peak vs. off-peak times of access, differential rates for macro vs. femto vs. WiFi access, and so on.

So while I agree with mBlox that "sender-pays" is a useful concept, let's not over-focus on a name and vision that it solely geared around delivery of packaged mobile content. My over-riding belief is that new business models for general mobile access and communication is always more important than mere content, and it's certainly the case here.

I cover sponsored / third-party pays data in the recently-published Disruptive Analysis Mobile Broadband Computing report.

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Interesting FAQ about the Vodafone Dell netbook

Some interesting questions and answers from the Vodafone UK's FAQ about its Dell Mini 9 netbook here, which highlights various of the upsides and downsides of this model. Will be interesting to see how these (and T's and C's) vary between operators once this approach has evolved a bit more.

Some pertinent ones:

"Can I run Microsoft Office?" - essentially, no, it doesn't have a CD drive or the processor clout to give good performance.

" If I switch network operator, can I still use my Dell netbook? : After your agreement with Vodafone has ended you can use the netbook with another operator. You will need a USB modem from your new operator and will need to re-configure the settings to be able to access their network."

"Can I upgrade the Dell netbook, e.g. larger hard drive, faster processor, more memory?" - No.

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Ericsson as handset API broker?

According to this article, Ericsson is talking up a new developer initiative aimed at trying to establish a common API across a variety of different handset platforms.

At one level, this is a very sensible concept - I've been trying to convince network-side manufacturers that they take the phones for granted for years. Numerous network technologies - 3G, IMS, UMA and potentially femtocells - have been delayed or rendered useless because the infrastructure or standards folk thought that the phones "were the easy bit". And while implementing some of the "hard" nuts-and-bolts protocols is occasionally simple, that certainly can't be said for the "soft" user-facing applications and all-round experience. I wrote about delays in creating IMS-capable phones 2.5 years ago, and we're still waiting for things like RCS.

In an ideal world, the network would be "exposed" to handset-based apps, and the handset "exposed" to network-based apps. The network would know (for example) what the phone's battery level was like, or if it was on charge, set to "silent" or had limited available free memory - all valuable data for applications. And it could help guarantee security through certificates or other mechanisms. Conversely, a handset-resident app could query different networks' levels of congestion, speed, price and choose the best one (obviously a lot of server-side APIs are already standard, courtesy of the web).

My concern is that Ericsson may not be the best-positioned or most neutral broker - especially if its proposition is based on Java and IMS as this other article suggests. If there is to be a successful common API, it absolutely needs to work in BOTH operator-controlled and 3rd-party-controlled fashions.

As a baseline, it needs to be absolutely neutral towards the philosophies of "over the top" or "through the middle" application architecture. It's fine if its *implementation* can be skewed one way or another in different contexts, though. For a handset provided by and subsidised by an operator, you'd expect there to be optimised applications and control/billing suited to the carrier's preferred platform, whether it's IMS or something else. But for an handset provided through other channels - and especially if it is subsidised or provided by a non-operator player (maybe Apple, Google, Cisco etc), the converse should be true.

There's also an large open question about how this fits with initiatives like OMTP's BONDI, which is "addressing the problem that an application written for one phone must be rewritten again and again if it is to work on all phones" (sound familiar?), but which is using a web runtime and browser/widget world-view, rather than Java or IMS. That said, Ericsson's also a sponsor of OMTP, so presumably there's some alignment going on in the background somewhere.

I haven't heard full details yet, so I can't really give a comprehesive opinion. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in their meetings with Apple and Google, though...

EDIT:I just re-read the last paragraph of the EEtimes article, which talks about browser-based application environments, so I'm now a bit confused between the mentions of web, Java, and IMS involvement. I'll try to track this down.

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Handset brands moving into dongle market

The new Disruptive Analysis report on Mobile Broadband Computing forecasts continued medium-term growth for external USB modems for PCs, albeit after a recession-based flattening of demand in 2009. One of the comments in it is that more handset manufacturers should consider entering the USB modem market.

So it's interesting timing to see that Nokia has just announced entry into the HSPA dongle marketplace.

This follow on from SonyEricsson doing the same earlier this year, and adding in extra functions like GPS and decent industrial design. Then LG, its LTE chipset announcement the other day, also mentioned that it is working on a prototype data card. And Toshiba does this cool-looking dongle/basic phone/MP3/memory hybrid thing called a G450.

I wonder if we'll see any cool-looking Apple-branded dongles at some point....

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